Gaetz Confirmation Odds Grim as Potentially Damning Ethics Report Looms

Gamblers at Polymarket believe former Republican congressman Matt Gaetz of Florida will be formally nominated as Attorney General of the United States to lead the Justice Department by President-Elect Donald Trump.

67% believe Trump will do so..

42% of gamblers believe Gaetz will actually be chosen over the next most likely candidate, Todd Blanche.

Gaetz actual confirmation is a different story.

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Of the confirmations, Gaetz stands the slimmest chance at 30%.  Compare that with another controversial pick, Tulsi Gabbard.  Bettors are backing Gabbard at 76%.

Gaetz quit his congressional job immediately after Trump announced him as his pick to be the next AG.  More telling perhaps, he left office two days before the House was set to release an Ethics Report.

Gamblers at Polymarket do not believe the Ethics Report will be released.  They are giving it just a 36% chance as of late Wednesday.   Granted gamblers were pretty certain it would be released just 24 hours earlier (76% chance). 

So what happened to change that trend?

House Ethics Committee Republicans voted Wednesday against releasing the panel’s long-running investigation into President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for attorney general, former Rep. Matt Gaetz, the top Democrat on the panel said.

The outcome, however, is only a temporary reprieve for Gaetz, who faces allegations of sexual misconduct, as he works to personally secure his embattled nomination to be the nation’s top law enforcement official.

The House panel expects to meet again Dec. 5 to reconsider releasing its findings.

“There was no consensus on this issue,” said Rep. Susan Wild of Pennsylvania, the panel’s ranking Democrat, who said the vote fell along party lines on the evenly split committee.

The allegations include claims of payments for sex. 

Appearing on CNN's "Out Front" with Erin Burnett Tuesday night, a lawyer for two of the accusers, Joel Leppard, revealed his clients felt the need to “please” ex-congressman Gaetz in between a Fox News appearance and another event.

The Florida-based attorney also revealed that one of the women testified that she observed Gaetz having sex with her 17-year-old friend, whose age Gaetz did not know until afterwards. The encounter allegedly occurred in 2017, when Gaetz was a freshman lawmaker.

“She testified to the House that as she was walking out to the pool area, she turned to her right and she witnessed … her friend having sex with Representative Gaetz. And her friend at that time was 17," Leppard told Burnett.